House of Representatives - 2018 Election

by Lou Galli

2018 Election Forecasting based on 2016 Election Results
With the 2018 mid-terms coming up, I decided to use Python and Beautiful Soup to scrape the 2016 election results from Secretary of State sites throughout the country. I sorted the 435 districts based on a margin of victory power ranking.

The problem with Mid-term Elections is that the turn-out is usually much lower than during Presidential Elections so it is more difficult to accurately forecast anything using polling data. As we are all aware, polling data was deemed very volatile in the 2016 election anyway. Therefore, using actual vote totals from 2016 seems a much more logical way to see what might happen.

This week, I heard some polsters claiming that House Districts like Kentucky-6 and Arizona-1 are in play. A polster can claim anything, but it seems unlikely that a District that was won by more than 15 points in 2016 would swing the other way in 2018.

Any Districts that had a <= 10% power ranking I highlighted in yellow. It makes sense that these are the true "swing districts" that could go either way. Based on 2016 real voter data, there are 28 Republican swing districts and 14 Democrat swing districts.

Looking forward to see what happens in a few days.


  2016 Election Results - Percentage Received by Party
-Democratic Party   -Republican Party   -Green Party   -Libertarian Party   -Independent Candidates   
 
State/DistrictPartyPower Ranking
Alabama-01Republican0.0%97.3%0.0%0.0%2.7%94.6%
Alabama-02Republican45.4%54.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.2%
Alabama-03Republican33.0%67.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.0%
Alabama-04Republican0.0%98.5%0.0%0.0%1.5%97.1%
Alabama-05Republican33.2%66.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.6%
Alabama-06Republican25.4%74.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%49.1%
Alabama-07Democrat98.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%96.8%
Alaska-01Republican36.2%50.5%0.0%10.3%3.0%1.0%
Arizona-01Democrat50.7%43.4%6.0%0.0%0.0%13.3%
Arizona-02Republican43.0%57.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%13.9%
Arizona-03Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Arizona-04Republican28.5%71.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%43.0%
Arizona-05Republican35.9%64.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.2%
Arizona-06Republican37.9%62.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.3%
Arizona-07Democrat75.3%24.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.5%
Arizona-08Republican0.0%68.6%31.4%0.0%0.0%37.1%
Arizona-09Democrat60.9%39.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%21.9%
Arkansas-01Republican0.0%76.3%0.0%23.7%0.0%52.6%
Arkansas-02Republican36.9%58.4%0.0%4.7%0.0%16.8%
Arkansas-03Republican0.0%77.3%0.0%22.7%0.0%54.6%
Arkansas-04Republican0.0%74.9%0.0%25.1%0.0%49.8%
California-01Republican40.9%59.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
California-02Democrat76.9%23.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%53.7%
California-03Democrat59.4%40.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.7%
California-04Republican37.3%62.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.4%
California-05Democrat76.9%23.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%53.7%
California-06Democrat75.4%24.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%50.9%
California-07Democrat51.2%48.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%
California-08Republican38.4%61.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.1%
California-09Democrat57.4%42.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%
California-10Republican48.3%51.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%
California-11Democrat72.1%27.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%44.1%
California-12Democrat80.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.1%61.7%
California-13Democrat90.8%9.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.6%
California-14Democrat80.9%19.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%61.7%
California-15Democrat73.8%26.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%47.5%
California-16Democrat58.0%42.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.1%
California-17Democrat61.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%39.0%22.0%
California-18Democrat71.1%28.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%42.3%
California-19Democrat73.9%26.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%47.9%
California-20Democrat70.8%29.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%41.5%
California-21Republican43.3%56.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%13.5%
California-22Republican32.4%67.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%35.1%
California-23Republican30.8%69.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%38.4%
California-24Democrat53.4%46.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.8%
California-25Republican46.9%53.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.3%
California-26Democrat60.4%39.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.8%
California-27Democrat67.4%32.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
California-28Democrat78.0%22.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%56.0%
California-29Democrat74.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.3%49.5%
California-30Democrat72.6%27.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%45.3%
California-31Democrat56.1%43.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.1%
California-32Democrat61.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%38.2%23.6%
California-33Democrat66.4%33.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%32.9%
California-34Democrat77.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%22.8%54.4%
California-35Democrat72.4%27.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%44.8%
California-36Democrat62.1%37.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.1%
California-37Democrat81.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.9%62.3%
California-38Democrat70.5%29.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%41.0%
California-39Republican42.8%57.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
California-40Democrat71.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.6%42.7%
California-41Democrat65.0%35.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%29.9%
California-42Republican41.2%58.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.6%
California-43Democrat76.1%23.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%52.2%
California-44Democrat52.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%47.8%100.0%
California-45Republican41.4%58.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.1%
California-46Democrat70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%30.0%40.0%
California-47Democrat63.7%36.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%27.4%
California-48Republican41.7%58.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.6%
California-49Republican49.7%50.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
California-50Republican36.5%63.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%26.9%
California-51Democrat72.8%27.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%45.5%
California-52Democrat56.5%43.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%13.1%
California-53Democrat67.0%33.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.0%
Colorado-01Democrat67.9%27.7%0.0%4.4%0.0%44.6%
Colorado-02Democrat56.9%37.2%0.0%5.9%0.0%25.7%
Colorado-03Republican40.3%54.6%0.0%5.1%0.0%9.2%
Colorado-04Republican31.7%63.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%27.1%
Colorado-05Republican30.9%62.3%0.0%6.9%0.0%24.6%
Colorado-06Republican42.6%50.9%1.5%5.0%0.0%1.8%
Colorado-07Democrat55.2%39.8%0.0%5.0%0.0%20.4%
Connecticut-01Democrat59.8%33.8%2.1%0.0%4.4%32.5%
Connecticut-02Democrat56.4%33.7%1.6%1.5%6.8%32.7%
Connecticut-03Democrat62.2%31.0%0.0%6.9%0.0%38.1%
Connecticut-04Democrat59.9%38.5%0.0%0.0%1.6%23.0%
Connecticut-05Democrat52.9%40.4%0.0%0.0%6.7%19.2%
Delaware-01Democrat55.5%41.0%2.0%1.5%0.0%18.1%
Florida-01Republican30.9%69.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%38.2%
Florida-02Republican29.9%67.3%0.0%2.7%0.0%34.6%
Florida-03Republican39.8%56.6%0.0%0.0%3.7%13.1%
Florida-04Republican27.6%70.2%0.0%0.0%2.2%40.4%
Florida-05Democrat64.2%35.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.5%
Florida-06Republican41.4%58.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.1%
Florida-07Democrat51.5%48.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.0%
Florida-08Republican32.5%63.1%0.0%0.0%4.3%26.2%
Florida-09Democrat57.5%42.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%
Florida-10Democrat64.9%35.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%29.7%
Florida-11Republican31.6%65.4%0.0%0.0%3.0%30.7%
Florida-12Republican31.4%68.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%37.2%
Florida-13Democrat51.9%48.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%
Florida-14Democrat61.8%38.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.6%
Florida-15Republican42.5%57.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%14.9%
Florida-16Republican40.2%59.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.5%
Florida-17Republican34.2%61.8%0.0%0.0%3.9%23.6%
Florida-18Republican43.1%53.6%0.0%0.0%3.3%7.2%
Florida-19Republican34.1%65.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%31.8%
Florida-20Democrat80.3%19.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%60.6%
Florida-21Democrat62.7%35.1%0.0%0.0%2.1%29.7%
Florida-22Democrat58.9%41.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.9%
Florida-23Democrat56.7%40.5%0.0%0.0%2.8%19.0%
Florida-24Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Florida-25Republican37.6%62.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.7%
Florida-26Republican41.2%53.0%0.0%0.0%5.9%5.9%
Florida-27Republican45.1%54.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%9.8%
Georgia-01Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Georgia-02Democrat61.2%38.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%22.5%
Georgia-03Republican31.7%68.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.7%
Georgia-04Democrat75.7%24.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%51.4%
Georgia-05Democrat84.4%15.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%68.9%
Georgia-06Republican38.3%61.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.4%
Georgia-07Republican39.6%60.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.8%
Georgia-08Republican32.4%67.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%35.3%
Georgia-09Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Georgia-10Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Georgia-11Republican32.6%67.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
Georgia-12Republican38.4%61.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.2%
Georgia-13Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Georgia-14Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Hawaii-01Democrat68.2%21.5%0.0%3.1%7.2%56.9%
Hawaii-02Democrat76.3%17.7%0.0%0.0%6.0%64.6%
Idaho-01Republican31.8%68.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.4%
Idaho-02Republican29.4%62.9%0.0%0.0%7.7%25.9%
Illinois-01Democrat74.1%25.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%48.2%
Illinois-02Democrat79.8%20.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%59.6%
Illinois-03Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Illinois-04Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Illinois-05Democrat67.8%27.5%4.7%0.0%0.0%45.0%
Illinois-06Republican40.8%59.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Illinois-07Democrat84.2%15.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%68.5%
Illinois-08Democrat58.3%41.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.6%
Illinois-09Democrat66.5%33.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.0%
Illinois-10Democrat52.6%47.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.2%
Illinois-11Democrat60.4%39.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.9%
Illinois-12Republican39.7%54.3%6.0%0.0%0.0%8.6%
Illinois-13Republican40.3%59.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.3%
Illinois-14Republican40.7%59.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Illinois-15Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Illinois-16Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Illinois-17Democrat60.3%39.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
Illinois-18Republican27.9%72.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%44.3%
Indiana-01Democrat81.5%0.0%0.0%18.5%0.0%63.0%
Indiana-02Republican36.9%59.3%0.0%3.8%0.0%18.5%
Indiana-03Republican23.0%70.1%0.0%6.9%0.0%40.2%
Indiana-04Republican30.5%64.6%0.0%4.9%0.0%29.2%
Indiana-05Republican34.3%61.5%0.0%4.2%0.0%22.9%
Indiana-06Republican26.7%69.1%0.0%4.2%0.0%38.3%
Indiana-07Democrat60.0%35.7%0.0%4.3%0.0%28.6%
Indiana-08Republican31.7%63.7%0.0%4.6%0.0%27.4%
Indiana-09Republican40.5%54.1%0.0%5.4%0.0%8.3%
Iowa-01Republican46.2%53.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.7%
Iowa-02Democrat52.5%47.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%4.9%
Iowa-03Republican40.2%54.1%0.0%4.0%1.6%8.3%
Iowa-04Republican38.7%61.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%22.6%
Kansas-01Republican0.0%66.1%0.0%7.5%26.3%32.2%
Kansas-02Republican32.6%60.9%0.0%6.5%0.0%21.9%
Kansas-03Republican40.6%51.3%0.0%8.1%0.0%2.6%
Kansas-04Republican29.6%60.7%0.0%2.8%6.9%21.3%
Kentucky-01Republican27.4%72.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%45.3%
Kentucky-02Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Kentucky-03Democrat63.5%36.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%27.0%
Kentucky-04Republican28.7%71.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%42.6%
Kentucky-05Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Kentucky-06Republican38.9%61.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Louisiana-01Republican19.5%74.6%2.1%2.9%1.0%49.1%
Louisiana-02Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Louisiana-03Republican43.9%56.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.2%
Louisiana-04Republican34.8%65.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%30.5%
Louisiana-05Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Louisiana-06Republican24.0%72.7%0.0%2.3%1.0%45.4%
Maine-01Democrat58.0%41.9%0.0%0.1%0.0%16.1%
Maine-02Republican45.2%54.8%0.0%0.0%0.1%9.5%
Maryland-01Republican28.6%67.0%0.0%4.2%0.1%34.0%
Maryland-02Democrat62.1%33.1%0.0%4.6%0.2%33.7%
Maryland-03Democrat63.2%33.9%2.8%0.0%0.2%32.3%
Maryland-04Democrat74.1%21.4%2.6%1.8%0.2%57.2%
Maryland-05Democrat67.4%29.4%0.0%3.1%0.2%41.3%
Maryland-06Democrat56.0%40.1%1.8%2.1%0.1%19.8%
Maryland-07Democrat74.9%21.8%3.0%0.0%0.2%56.3%
Maryland-08Democrat60.6%34.2%3.1%2.0%0.1%31.6%
Massachusetts-01Democrat73.5%0.0%0.0%8.6%17.9%47.0%
Massachusetts-02Democrat98.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%96.5%
Massachusetts-03Democrat68.7%31.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%37.4%
Massachusetts-04Democrat70.1%29.8%0.0%0.0%0.1%40.2%
Massachusetts-05Democrat98.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.4%97.1%
Massachusetts-06Democrat98.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.6%96.7%
Massachusetts-07Democrat98.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.4%97.2%
Massachusetts-08Democrat72.4%27.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%44.8%
Massachusetts-09Democrat55.7%33.6%0.0%0.0%10.6%11.5%
Michigan-01Republican40.1%54.9%1.3%3.7%0.0%9.8%
Michigan-02Republican32.5%62.6%1.6%2.4%0.9%25.3%
Michigan-03Republican37.5%59.5%0.0%0.0%3.0%18.9%
Michigan-04Republican32.1%61.6%1.3%2.7%2.4%23.2%
Michigan-05Democrat61.2%35.1%1.5%2.2%0.0%29.8%
Michigan-06Republican36.4%58.7%0.0%4.9%0.0%17.3%
Michigan-07Republican40.0%55.1%0.0%4.9%0.0%10.1%
Michigan-08Republican39.2%56.0%1.5%2.6%0.6%12.1%
Michigan-09Democrat57.9%37.4%1.9%2.8%0.0%25.2%
Michigan-10Republican32.3%63.1%1.5%3.1%0.0%26.2%
Michigan-11Republican40.2%52.9%0.0%6.9%0.0%5.9%
Michigan-12Democrat64.3%29.3%1.3%2.3%2.8%41.5%
Michigan-13Democrat77.1%15.7%0.0%3.7%3.4%68.5%
Michigan-14Democrat78.5%18.7%1.2%1.6%0.0%62.6%
Minnesota-01Democrat50.4%49.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%
Minnesota-02Republican45.2%47.0%0.0%0.0%7.8%6.0%
Minnesota-03Republican43.1%56.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%13.7%
Minnesota-04Democrat57.8%34.4%0.0%0.0%7.7%31.1%
Minnesota-05Democrat69.2%22.3%0.0%0.0%8.5%55.4%
Minnesota-06Republican34.3%65.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%
Minnesota-07Democrat52.5%47.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.0%
Minnesota-08Democrat50.3%49.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
Mississippi-01Republican27.9%68.7%0.0%2.1%1.3%37.4%
Mississippi-02Democrat67.1%29.1%0.0%0.0%3.7%41.7%
Mississippi-03Republican30.4%66.2%0.0%0.0%3.4%32.4%
Mississippi-04Republican27.8%65.0%0.0%5.3%1.9%30.1%
Missouri-01Democrat75.5%20.0%0.0%4.6%0.0%60.1%
Missouri-02Republican36.0%60.1%1.0%2.9%0.0%20.3%
Missouri-03Republican27.9%67.8%0.0%3.2%1.0%35.7%
Missouri-04Republican27.8%67.8%0.0%4.3%0.0%35.7%
Missouri-05Democrat58.8%38.2%0.0%3.0%0.0%23.7%
Missouri-06Republican28.4%68.0%1.2%2.3%0.0%36.0%
Missouri-07Republican27.4%67.5%0.0%5.1%0.0%35.1%
Missouri-08Republican22.7%74.4%0.0%2.9%0.0%48.8%
Montana-01Republican40.5%56.2%0.0%3.3%0.0%12.4%
Nebraska-01Republican30.5%69.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%38.9%
Nebraska-02Republican47.7%48.9%0.0%3.3%0.0%2.1%
Nebraska-03Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Nevada-01Democrat61.9%28.8%0.0%0.0%9.4%42.5%
Nevada-02Republican36.9%58.3%0.0%0.0%4.8%16.6%
Nevada-03Democrat47.2%46.0%0.0%0.0%6.8%8.1%
Nevada-04Democrat48.5%44.5%0.0%3.8%3.1%11.0%
New Hampshire-01Democrat44.3%43.0%0.0%1.5%11.2%14.0%
New Hampshire-02Democrat49.8%45.3%0.0%0.0%4.9%9.3%
New Jersey-01Democrat60.0%36.8%0.0%0.8%2.4%26.4%
New Jersey-02Republican37.2%59.2%0.0%1.3%2.3%18.4%
New Jersey-03Republican38.9%59.3%0.0%0.0%1.8%18.6%
New Jersey-04Republican33.5%63.7%0.0%1.0%1.8%27.4%
New Jersey-05Democrat51.1%46.7%0.0%2.2%0.0%6.6%
New Jersey-06Democrat63.7%34.9%0.7%0.7%0.0%30.2%
New Jersey-07Republican43.1%54.1%0.0%1.6%1.2%8.2%
New Jersey-08Democrat77.0%18.5%0.0%2.0%2.5%63.0%
New Jersey-09Democrat69.7%28.0%0.0%1.4%0.8%43.9%
New Jersey-10Democrat87.1%12.1%0.0%0.0%0.8%75.9%
New Jersey-11Republican38.9%58.0%0.0%1.0%2.1%16.0%
New Jersey-12Democrat62.9%32.0%0.7%0.9%3.5%36.0%
New Mexico-01Democrat65.1%34.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%30.3%
New Mexico-02Republican37.3%62.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.5%
New Mexico-03Democrat62.4%37.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.8%
New York-01Republican41.8%58.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.4%
New York-02Republican37.9%62.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.1%
New York-03Democrat53.0%47.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
New York-04Democrat59.6%40.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.2%
New York-05Democrat85.5%13.0%1.5%0.0%0.0%74.1%
New York-06Democrat72.1%26.7%0.0%0.0%1.1%46.5%
New York-07Democrat90.8%9.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.6%
New York-08Democrat93.3%6.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.6%
New York-09Democrat92.4%7.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.8%
New York-10Democrat78.1%21.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%56.3%
New York-11Republican36.7%61.6%1.7%0.0%0.0%23.2%
New York-12Democrat83.2%16.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%66.4%
New York-13Democrat88.8%6.9%3.5%0.0%0.8%86.2%
New York-14Democrat82.9%17.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%65.7%
New York-15Democrat95.3%3.5%0.0%0.0%1.2%93.0%
New York-16Democrat94.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%89.3%
New York-17Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
New York-18Democrat55.6%44.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%11.2%
New York-19Republican45.9%54.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.1%
New York-20Democrat67.9%32.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%35.8%
New York-21Republican30.2%65.3%4.6%0.0%0.0%30.6%
New York-22Republican42.6%48.2%0.0%0.0%9.2%3.5%
New York-23Republican42.4%57.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%15.2%
New York-24Republican39.4%60.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%21.1%
New York-25Democrat56.2%43.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.4%
New York-26Democrat74.6%25.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%49.2%
New York-27Republican32.8%67.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.4%
North Carolina-01Democrat68.6%29.0%0.0%2.4%0.0%42.1%
North Carolina-02Republican43.3%56.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%13.4%
North Carolina-03Republican32.8%67.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.4%
North Carolina-04Democrat68.2%31.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.4%
North Carolina-05Republican41.6%58.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.8%
North Carolina-06Republican40.8%59.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.5%
North Carolina-07Republican39.1%60.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%21.8%
North Carolina-08Republican41.2%58.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.5%
North Carolina-09Republican41.8%58.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.4%
North Carolina-10Republican36.9%63.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%26.3%
North Carolina-11Republican35.9%64.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.2%
North Carolina-12Democrat67.0%33.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.0%
North Carolina-13Republican43.9%56.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.2%
North Dakota-01Republican23.8%69.2%0.0%7.0%0.0%38.5%
Ohio-01Republican40.8%59.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.4%
Ohio-02Republican33.6%66.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%32.9%
Ohio-03Democrat68.6%31.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%37.1%
Ohio-04Republican32.0%68.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%36.0%
Ohio-05Republican29.1%70.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%41.8%
Ohio-06Republican29.3%70.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%41.4%
Ohio-07Republican29.0%64.0%0.0%0.0%7.0%28.1%
Ohio-08Republican27.0%68.8%4.3%0.0%0.0%37.5%
Ohio-09Democrat68.7%31.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%37.4%
Ohio-10Republican32.7%64.1%0.0%0.0%3.2%28.2%
Ohio-11Democrat80.3%19.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%60.5%
Ohio-12Republican29.9%66.8%3.3%0.0%0.0%33.5%
Ohio-13Democrat67.7%32.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%35.5%
Ohio-14Republican37.4%62.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.2%
Ohio-15Republican33.8%66.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%32.3%
Ohio-16Republican34.5%65.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%31.0%
Oklahoma-01Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Oklahoma-02Republican23.2%70.6%0.0%0.0%6.2%41.2%
Oklahoma-03Republican21.7%78.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%56.6%
Oklahoma-04Republican26.1%69.6%0.0%4.3%0.0%39.3%
Oklahoma-05Republican36.8%57.1%0.0%6.1%0.0%14.2%
Oregon-01Democrat59.7%37.0%0.0%3.2%0.0%25.9%
Oregon-02Republican28.0%71.7%0.0%0.0%0.3%43.4%
Oregon-03Democrat72.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%27.9%44.3%
Oregon-04Democrat55.5%39.7%0.0%1.6%3.2%20.6%
Oregon-05Democrat53.5%43.0%0.0%0.0%3.5%14.0%
Pennsylvania-01Democrat82.2%17.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%64.4%
Pennsylvania-02Democrat90.2%9.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%80.4%
Pennsylvania-03Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Pennsylvania-04Republican33.9%66.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%32.1%
Pennsylvania-05Republican32.8%67.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%34.3%
Pennsylvania-06Republican42.8%57.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
Pennsylvania-07Republican40.5%59.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%18.9%
Pennsylvania-08Republican45.6%54.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.9%
Pennsylvania-09Republican36.7%63.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%26.7%
Pennsylvania-10Republican29.8%70.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%40.3%
Pennsylvania-11Republican36.3%63.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%27.3%
Pennsylvania-12Republican38.2%61.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.5%
Pennsylvania-13Democrat100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Pennsylvania-14Democrat74.4%25.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%48.7%
Pennsylvania-15Republican38.0%58.4%0.0%3.6%0.0%16.8%
Pennsylvania-16Republican42.9%53.8%0.0%3.4%0.0%7.5%
Pennsylvania-17Democrat53.8%46.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%7.6%
Pennsylvania-18Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Rhode Island-01Democrat64.8%35.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%29.5%
Rhode Island-02Democrat58.2%30.8%0.0%0.0%11.0%38.5%
South Carolina-01Republican36.9%58.7%0.0%3.6%0.9%17.3%
South Carolina-02Republican35.9%60.3%0.0%0.0%3.8%20.6%
South Carolina-03Republican27.1%72.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%45.8%
South Carolina-04Republican31.0%67.2%0.0%0.0%1.7%34.5%
South Carolina-05Republican38.8%59.1%0.0%0.0%2.1%18.2%
South Carolina-06Democrat70.1%27.6%1.0%1.2%0.0%44.7%
South Carolina-07Republican39.0%61.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%22.0%
South Dakota-01Republican35.9%64.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.2%
Tennessee-01Republican15.4%78.4%0.0%0.0%6.2%56.7%
Tennessee-02Republican24.4%75.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%51.3%
Tennessee-03Republican28.8%66.4%0.0%0.0%4.8%32.8%
Tennessee-04Republican35.0%65.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%30.1%
Tennessee-05Democrat62.6%37.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
Tennessee-06Republican21.8%71.1%0.0%0.0%7.1%42.2%
Tennessee-07Republican23.5%72.2%0.0%0.0%4.3%44.4%
Tennessee-08Republican25.1%68.8%0.0%0.0%6.2%37.5%
Tennessee-09Democrat78.7%18.9%0.0%0.0%2.4%62.3%
Texas-01Republican24.1%73.9%0.0%1.9%0.0%47.8%
Texas-02Republican36.0%60.6%1.0%2.3%0.0%21.3%
Texas-03Republican34.6%61.2%0.9%3.3%0.0%22.4%
Texas-04Republican0.0%88.0%0.0%12.0%0.0%76.0%
Texas-05Republican0.0%80.6%0.0%19.4%0.0%61.2%
Texas-06Republican39.0%58.3%2.6%0.0%0.0%16.7%
Texas-07Republican43.8%56.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.3%
Texas-08Republican0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
Texas-09Democrat80.6%19.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%61.3%
Texas-10Republican40.2%55.7%0.0%4.1%0.0%11.5%
Texas-11Republican0.0%89.5%0.0%10.5%0.0%79.0%
Texas-12Republican26.9%69.4%0.0%3.7%0.0%38.8%
Texas-13Republican0.0%90.0%3.4%6.7%0.0%79.9%
Texas-14Republican38.1%61.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.7%
Texas-15Democrat57.3%37.7%3.1%1.9%0.0%24.6%
Texas-16Democrat85.7%0.0%4.3%10.0%0.0%71.5%
Texas-17Republican35.2%60.8%0.0%4.0%0.0%21.6%
Texas-18Democrat73.5%23.6%2.9%0.0%0.0%52.7%
Texas-19Republican0.0%86.7%4.8%8.5%0.0%73.3%
Texas-20Democrat79.7%0.0%4.8%15.5%0.0%59.5%
Texas-21Republican36.4%57.0%2.4%4.1%0.0%14.0%
Texas-22Republican40.5%59.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.0%
Texas-23Republican47.0%48.3%0.0%4.7%0.0%3.4%
Texas-24Republican39.3%56.2%1.4%3.1%0.0%12.4%
Texas-25Republican37.7%58.3%0.0%3.9%0.0%16.7%
Texas-26Republican29.6%66.4%0.0%4.0%0.0%32.7%
Texas-27Republican38.3%61.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.4%
Texas-28Democrat66.2%31.3%2.5%0.0%0.0%37.4%
Texas-29Democrat72.5%24.0%1.1%2.5%0.0%52.0%
Texas-30Democrat77.9%19.0%0.9%2.2%0.0%62.1%
Texas-31Republican36.5%58.4%0.0%5.2%0.0%16.7%
Texas-32Republican0.0%71.1%10.0%19.0%0.0%42.1%
Texas-33Democrat73.7%26.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%47.4%
Texas-34Democrat62.7%37.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%25.3%
Texas-35Democrat63.1%31.6%2.1%3.3%0.0%36.9%
Texas-36Republican0.0%88.6%11.4%0.0%0.0%77.2%
Utah-01Republican26.4%65.9%0.0%5.9%1.7%31.9%
Utah-02Republican33.9%61.6%0.0%0.0%4.5%23.2%
Utah-03Republican26.5%73.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%46.9%
Utah-04Republican41.3%53.8%0.0%0.0%4.9%7.5%
Vermont-01Democrat90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.0%80.0%
Virginia-01Republican36.6%59.8%0.0%0.0%3.6%26.8%
Virginia-02Republican38.4%61.3%0.0%0.0%0.2%23.1%
Virginia-03Democrat66.7%33.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%33.4%
Virginia-04Democrat57.7%42.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%15.5%
Virginia-05Republican41.6%58.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%16.8%
Virginia-06Republican33.1%66.6%0.0%0.0%0.2%33.7%
Virginia-07Republican42.2%57.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%15.5%
Virginia-08Democrat68.4%27.3%0.0%0.0%4.3%36.8%
Virginia-09Republican28.3%68.6%0.0%0.0%3.1%43.4%
Virginia-10Republican46.9%52.7%0.0%0.0%0.4%6.2%
Virginia-11Democrat87.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%12.3%75.5%
Washington-01Democrat55.4%44.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%10.8%
Washington-02Democrat64.0%36.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%28.0%
Washington-03Republican38.2%61.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.5%
Washington-04Republican0.0%57.6%0.0%0.0%42.4%15.3%
Washington-05Republican40.4%59.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.3%
Washington-06Democrat61.5%38.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%23.1%
Washington-07Democrat56.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%44.0%12.0%
Washington-08Republican39.8%60.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.4%
Washington-09Democrat72.9%27.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%45.8%
Washington-10Democrat58.7%41.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%17.3%
West Virginia-01Republican31.0%69.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%37.9%
West Virginia-02Republican41.8%58.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%16.3%
West Virginia-03Republican24.0%67.9%0.0%8.1%0.0%52.0%
Wisconsin-01Republican30.2%64.9%0.0%2.1%2.7%39.6%
Wisconsin-02Democrat68.7%31.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%37.4%
Wisconsin-03Democrat98.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%1.1%97.7%
Wisconsin-04Democrat76.7%0.0%0.0%11.2%12.0%53.5%
Wisconsin-05Republican29.3%66.7%0.0%3.9%0.1%41.4%
Wisconsin-06Republican37.3%57.2%0.0%0.0%5.6%25.5%
Wisconsin-07Republican38.3%61.7%0.0%0.0%0.1%23.5%
Wisconsin-08Republican33.2%66.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%33.6%
Wyoming-01Republican29.9%61.9%0.0%3.6%4.6%40.1%



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